OUR STORY

In 1941, Howard Herskowitz, a theoretical mathematics major in New York City, set out to disprove Einstein's theory that it is impossible to beat the horse races. After years of diligent study, Howard determined the two main factors responsible for determining the outcome of a given race: Class and Condition. 

                                                                                                           

In 1981, Howard met Richard Saba and the two friends formed an alliance dedicated to finishing the work Howard had started. Together, they began to compile and analyze racing data from nearly every race run in North America. After several years, Howard discovered the precise mathematical barrier, that when broken, determined that the horse breaking the barrier was in top racing condition.

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In an effort to field test their theory, Richard formed Green Cedar Stable in 1989. He began claiming only horses that had recently broken the mathematical barrier. Although most of the horses won in dominating fashion, Howard and Richard knew they had found the mathematical probability formula to determine top racing condition, but also knew condition alone was not enough.

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During the years between 1989 – 1994 they worked to identify the missing principle that would determine inherent value in all Thoroughbreds, raced or unraced. In 1995, Richard purchased data from the Jockey Club information systems consisting of virtually the entire Thoroughbred breed, approximately 1.4 million horses. The men began filtering through each and every horse applying the principle they had developed during the previous five years of study to determine a pedigree's chances of winning. After significant failed attempts to prove the theory of class, Green Cedar was dissolved in 1996, Richard shelved horse racing and moved into other business interests.

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In 2005, Howard passed away. Then, in 2008 when the economy tanked, Richard was even more determined to sell his other business interests and, subsequently, returned to his first love – Thoroughbred horses.

 

Richard spent the next several years working 80-hour weeks at the computer, evaluating the breed, connecting horses and assigning points to each individual horse. By connecting horses to high point lineages he realized that the horses that connected many times did not necessarily possess greater  inherent value. This was evident in that some lower point lineages were outperforming the higher point lineages. What he and Howard had missed throughout this entire process was not looking at subsequent horses based on the principle of lineage itself. Finally, through this realization, Richard discovered the analysis component that allows him to identify the inherent value of all Thoroughbreds, raced or unraced.

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